Will three points guarantee a spot in World Cup knockouts?
Of the 12 teams that will finish in third place, eight will progress. That equates to exactly two-thirds.To offer an accurate as possible comparison, in the 32-team era, this would have roughly equated to the five best third-placed teams.In the seven previous tournaments, going back to 1998, each time the fifth-best third-placed team finished with at least three points: Colombia (1998), Portugal (2002), Poland (2006), Ivory Coast (2010 and 2014), Nigeria (2018), Tunisia (2022).Therefore, goal difference could play a major factor in determining matters this year.In 1998, three points and a -2 goal difference was enough for Colombia to be one of the five best third-placed teams. In 2006, Poland finished the tournament as the fifth-best third-place side with three points and a -2 goal difference.Ivory Coast finished as the fifth-best third-place finishers in 2010 with three points and a +1 goal difference. Whereas in 2002, Portugal finished with a +2 goal difference on three points as the fifth-best third-placed team.In 2022, there was a three-way tie for the fifth-best third-placed team: Tunisia, Cameroon and Uruguay all finished on four points and a level goal difference, with one win, one draw and one defeat each from their three group stage matches.With 12 groups instead of eight at this tournament, there is room for a broader range of results but if recent history suggests anything, it is that teams should not rely on three points being enough to progress – and that goal difference will be key.In 1998, 2002, 2010, 2014, 2018 and 2022, there were 13 third-placed teams who finished on three points but were not among the top five third-place finishers.This article is the latest from BBC Sport's Ask Me Anything team.
